Stalk Market

April 2, 2020 · Games

Update: After collecting about 11 weeks of data I ran out of steam. Others have investigated the Stalk Market, individually or as community projects, and their findings are available here:

  1. Infographic (and follow-up) by Twitter user @KnightCarmine who started a community data collection project;
  2. Data-minded code governing turnip pricing in AC:NH by Twitter user @_Ninji;
  3. A tool to predict turnip prices by Reddit user u/mikebryantuk;
  4. A paper documenting the Stalk Market mechanics by Reddit user u/Edricus.

Original Post:

Animal Crossing: New Horizons came out on March 20, 2020. This game has an economic mechanic called the “Stalk Market”. Every Sunday, a character shows up on your island selling turnips. The price of these turnips is randomized and unique to each player’s island; on March 22 (the first possible date turnips were available), my turnip buy price was 92 Bells (Bells is the usual Animal Crossing currency). Monday through Saturday, you can sell these turnips back to the regular island vendor, but the price varies: each day has a random price in the morning (8:00-11:59) and another price in the afternoon (12:00-21:59). The goal is to sell back the turnips at a favourble rate, earning profit and avoiding losses. You can’t hold out too long, because the turnips will go rotten on the next Sunday.

This is the first time I’ve played an Animal Crossing game. I’ve heard a lot about how the Stalk Market worked in previous games. Some people maintain that Tuesdays usually have the best price. Others have found recognizable drop and spike patterns, and claim that paying attention to these can help you minimize losses and maximize earnings. I’m tracking my weekly buy and twice-daily sell prices to find out if there’s any truth to these assertions, and hopefully contribute to our knowledge of turnip economics. But also, mostly, to make a buttload of Bells.

Graphs based on the purchase prices given by the Turnip vendor and the selling price given by the Nook store. This section will probably get bigger as I collect more data.

Buys and Sells

Graphs based on my actual Turnip purchasing and selling. How well am I making decisions about Turnip trade? Note that I’m not using multiplayer features to find better Turnip prices; I’m only using the prices available on my island.